哈佛大学教授:美方加征关税“几乎伤害了所有人”

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"Whether in other countries or in our country, the trade war provoked by the US government has hurt almost everyone." Jeffrey Frankel, an economics professor at the Kennedy School of Government Administration at Harvard University, told this reporter. Frankel twice served on the US President's Council of Economic Advisers. In his view, the current US government's trade policy cannot be “understood” from a political and economic perspective, because it is difficult to find a group that truly “benefits” from it.

In the past few days, the US government has used inflation as an indicator, claiming that tariff measures will not significantly affect American consumers. In this regard, Frankel expressed a clear opposition. He pointed out that the current US government's additional tariffs on Chinese exports to the United States may cause American families to lose an average of $500 a year, but this does not necessarily immediately change the US inflation rate data, because in addition to trade policy, the macro economy is still subject to many Other factors affect.

Frankel believes that the current US trade policy has brought a rare phenomenon. "Almost everyone suffers losses." He pointed out that "the cost of tariffs on imported goods in the United States is mainly paid by American companies and consumers, not Chinese companies." "From soybeans to automobiles, American producers are losing their export markets."

Not long ago, a report by the International Monetary Fund found that the increase in the price of imported goods after tariffs on China was consistent with the tariff range. Therefore, the tariff costs are basically borne by the US, and some of the tariffs have been It is passed on to American consumers, and the rest is borne by US importers by reducing profit margins.

xx弗兰克尔的分析认为,传统的政治经济学模式对“关税”的解释是基于以下逻辑:进口竞争性产业在美国具有不成比例的政治影响力,由于后者的影响,这可能压倒消费者的政治影响力。更加分散,这导致了保护主义政策的出现。他进一步指出,美国的关税措施很难找到受益者,这就像完成了“不可能的事情”。在他看来,解释当前的美国贸易政策需要一个“心理模型”。

目前,美国经济界普遍担心华盛顿的单边主义政策对全球多边体系的影响。弗兰克尔也不例外。他说:“在过去的几十年里,经济全球化的趋势,如跨境供应链的整合,被认为是一种不可改变的趋势。不幸的是,缺乏政治领导正在扭转历史。多年来,我们也犯了类似的错误,选择了保护主义,孤立主义和民族主义,这些都造成了可怕的后果。“

“我认为没有必要让美国和中国陷入冲突。”弗兰克尔强调,世界上所有国家都应尽一切可能避免对以规则为基础的多边体系造成长期损害,特别是对世贸组织等国际组织。例如,他说:“将来,我们或许可以进行谈判,并使”国家安全“等含糊不清的措辞更具体,避免滥用。”

(人民日报)